Area Climate Profiles


Photo Gallery





Current Climate Risks of Gerona

The municipality of Gerona, Tarlac has a Type1 climate (based on the modified Corona’s climate classification). Its climate is characterized by two distinct seasons: wet from June to October and dry from December to May. Like in most areas of the Type 1 climate, Gerona’s wettest months are from July to September, and its driest months are during the months of February to April. On the other hand, the start (onset) of rainy season has varied, depending on whether there is an El Nino eventor not. In so-called normal years, the onset of the rainy season is during the second half of May up to the first week of June., while during El Nino years, it comes a bit late.

Tropical cyclone season in the area is from Julyto September; although it still is visited by these extreme weather events even during the months of October and November, and rarely to occasionally in December. A total of 29, 73 and 121 tropical cyclones had crossed, passed within 50- and 100-km radius of the municipality and the province of Tarlac. It is usually during the occurrence of tropical cyclones that the municipality is subjected to maximal rainfall, coupled with maximum wind values.

One of the most intense rain events that had happened in the province of Tarlac and the rest of the Central Luzon was in 1972, and these had caused intense flooding events which had totally submerged the standing crops under water and subsequently, intensive damage.

An analysis of historical extreme daily rainfall and temperature values in representative weather stations near Gerona indicate the number of hotdays and warm nights are increasing with the maximum and minimum temperatures also generally increasing.

The area had in the past also been severely affected by rainfall deficiencies as a result of El Nino episodes/events, particularly during the three most severe during the period from 1950 to present (1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-1998 El Nino events). During El Ninos, not enough water is available for irrigation, thereby causing a substantial drop in farmers’ harvest.



2020 Climate Projections and Future Risks

The future climate change scenarios for Gerona and the rest of the province of Tarlac do not augur well for the municipality’s agriculture. In 2020, temperature rise is projected at 1.0C during the months of December to February. The warmest months of March to May will experience
a rise in temperature at 1.2 C. The temperature increases in June to August will be 1.0C and 1.1C in September to November. The projected temperature increases in 2050 will be 2.25C in the months of December to February, 2.25C in March to May, 1.9C in June to August and 2.1C in September to November.




Future Risks and Implications for Agriculture

The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) reported in 2007 that temperature increases will exacerbate the already decreasing yields. Temperature that exceeded the threshold value of 33C affects the most sensitive grain-filling stage of some rice varieties.

The projected increases in rainfall in 2020, during the relatively dry but colder months of December, January and February is 20% of mean rainfall value at present. The southwest monsoon season from June to August will experience an increase of 9% in the mean rainfall during these months. However, the driest months of March to May are projected to experience lower mean rainfall of 8% and the months immediately following the southwest monsoon in September to November will have a projected decrease of 3%.

In 2050, the relatively dry months of December to February will have lower mean rainfall by 5% and the months of March to May will be down by 15%. On the other hand, the mean rainfall during the wetter months of June to August will increase by 26% and is projected to increase by 2% in the months of September to November.







Rice Watch and Action Network

© 2007-2011 All Rights Reserved